Updates from our Chief Economist

Todd Mattina

Senior Vice President, Chief Economist, Team Co-Lead

Mackenzie Multi-Asset Strategies Team

Todd Mattina, Senior Vice President, Chief Economist and Co-Lead of Mackenzie Multi-Asset Strategies Team, shares monthly insights on the economy, markets and more.

Asset allocation for tomorrow’s uncertain economy

July 10, 2020

In today’s low-yield environment, the traditional 60/40 asset allocation is expected to generate lower returns in the next decade compared to the exceptional performance of the last 40 years.

After the Pandemic: Economic Scenarios in the Post-Crisis World

June 4, 2020

Recent gains in global stock markets suggest investors are more optimistic about the outlook. Surveys of economist forecasts point to a bounce in global economic activity next year following a “sudden stop” in 2020 to enforce social distancing.

Rebound from the Lockdown

May 5, 2020

In this month’s note, we provide an update on the economic outlook and discuss why financial markets appear optimistic despite an unprecedented economic slowdown. We believe that forward-looking investors are looking past current economic weakness to focus on an apparent peak in new cases and deaths from the pandemic, the expected re-opening of major economies and robust policy measures to replace lost incomes.

Todd's latest from social:

April 20, 2020

China’s Q1 GDP growth rate of -6.8% is the weakest since 1992, reflecting shuttered productive capacity during the lock-down. However, China has re-opened and activity is returning rapidly.

 

Todd's latest from social:

April 16, 2020

Government budget deficits this year are expected to surpass the 2008-09 recession. After the crisis, governments will need to rebuild fiscal space and ensure public finances are sustainable on a long-term footing.

Todd's latest from social:

April 9, 2020

Canadian job losses in March were 40% of total employment gains since the Great Recession. While many jobs are expected to return once the shutdown is over, the scale and speed of job losses highlight the urgency of supporting lost incomes.

Todd's latest from social:

April 7, 2020

For those who look to Italy’s experience with social distancing policy as a means to contain the spread of COVID-19, the recent peak in the daily number of new cases is noteworthy.

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Flattening the Curves

March 27, 2020

Summary:

  • Stopping the pandemic spread while minimizing the steep economic cost is the key policy challenge
  • Policymakers have acted quickly with strong measures to backstop the economy and credit markets
  • Policy stimulus should strive to prevent a further deterioration in demand and unemployment, but policymakers cannot offset the negative supply-side impact of a prolonged economic lockdown
  • The macro outlook depends on the duration of social distancing to contain the epidemic
  • Long horizon investors should continue periodic portfolio rebalancing and ensure adequate liquidity to avoid selling assets at distressed prices

Todd's latest from social:

March 19, 2020

As governments face the largest budget deficits since the Great Recession, strong fundamentals are important to underpin a “whatever it takes” fiscal policy response. Amongst the G-7 countries, Canada and Germany have the most fiscal space to accommodate larger budget deficits as needed.

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Market turbulence follows coronavirus and oil price war

March 12, 2020

The worsening coronavirus outbreak and oil price war have sharply increased financial market turbulence. The number of coronavirus cases is expected to rise sharply over coming weeks in North America and Europe based on the views of respected epidemiologists. Even if fatalities remain low, essential measures to contain the virus are expected to disrupt global supply chains and weaken consumer confidence. Compounding the economic shock from the coronavirus is Saudi Arabia’s oil price war, whichcomes at an inopportune time for the global economy. Ramping up oil supply to boost market share and displace US shaleproducers has increased credit risk in the high yield energy sector.

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